Towards a 21st Century Post Carbon Urbanized Society

Lee Morris

Atkins Associate Director, Senior Design Architect, W S Atkins & Partners Overseas

Keywords: Climate Change, Alternative Energy, Technology, Human

As the human race enters the early 21st Century, we have wealth science and technology unmatched in human experience. The fortunate few who live in the worlds developed nations are almost inevitably propelled towards a future enriched by advances in computers, communication and life sciences. But ours is also a world in turmoil, with the ravages of war, famine, persecution, water shortages and climatic disasters appearing daily on our television screens and in our newspapers. Humans are a rapacious predator and mortal enemy to the earth’s species be they plant or animal,

representing millions of years of evolution and to its precious resources.

Our dependency on oil and our drive to procreate, consume and the increase in gross product are having and will continue to have far reaching, if not catastrophic consequences for future generations of the planet. The first section of this paper will take a brief overview of where we stand at the moment in the face of a constant struggle to achieve economic prosperity and social evolution, in the face of major global challenges such as war, famine and disease. Throughout history, there have been examples where mankind has responded to challenges, using knowledge, technology, leadership and a will to survive based on self-preservation. The challenges regarding climate change are such that mankind has never faced before and its adversary cannot be reasoned or negotiated with; nature.

The depletion of cheap oil production and the socio-economic instability of those oil providing countries will result in sharp and savage energy shocks from 2020 to 2030, leading to a massive global recession that will leave millions unemployed, displaced and dead, from developed to developing nations. Life as we know it will change irrevocably as long-distance travel becomes a luxury few can afford and the world has, for people in all nations (but specifically developed nations), shrunk back to their own communities and ‘global interconnectivity’ is an archaic memory of a forgotten era. People will be wetter and hotter in the new world as weather climates change and, as air conditioning and heating are at a premium. People will be hungrier as the mass market in global imports of world produce is cut back. The time may return when a fruit, such as strawberries, are only available to be picked in the summer months in the UK and not imported all year round as happens today.

The depletion of oil production and the instability of those providing countries will result in sharp and savage energy shocks throughout the 2020’s as unmanageable financial markets and continued demand lead to extreme economic instability and in to a massive global recession that will leave millions unemployed from developed to developing nations. The very foundations that we have based our society on, the dependency on cheap fossil fuel for transport and manufacturing goods falls apart and the break down in the fabric of our society, dependent on relatively stable (if sometime volatile) financial markets and decline in trade with other societies follows quickly. Those with oil, primarily OPEC, become the dominant world power in trade and political will and power cuts in the importing nations resemble times of the oil crises of the 1970’s, but this period of dominance will not last as governments are forced away from demanding oil and move to invest heavily in alternative methods of producing power.

In today’s world, good environmental practice is at the heart of economic and social policies. People are environmentally aware and more careful in their use of resources. Sustainable buildings are the norm, meeting the highest level of today’s accreditation, and a massive refurbishment program to bring current residential and business building stock up to standards in the mid 2030’s. Distributed renewable clean power generation and new progressive planning policies have created compact, sustainable cities. Buildings which incorporated sustainable design principles were and are cheaper to maintain, so their life cost was lower and led to more satisfied staff and homeowners.

With the introduction of ultra-light materials specifically carbon fiber and plastics, cars have become stronger and lighter and this has helped increase fuel efficiency also. However, the numbers of cars in the early 2020’s have not decreased significantly but the impact of degraded road networks and infrastructure generally is taking its toll on users/long distance commuters, as well as carbon tax tolls on pay per use roads and the ever-increasing high cost of fuel. The balance is tipping away from individual car use to highly efficient multi modal public transport infrastructure. Lifestyles are changing with individual freedoms being eroded – schooling and working from home are becoming the norm, long distance holidays are expensive – international tourism numbers are seriously reduced.

We must find ways to lessen the burden on the Earth’s resources and we must encourage better stewardship of the planet so that all of us, our children and our children’s children, may live in a clean and productive environment. We must resurrect our cities from urban decay by creating clean, safe, attractive urban habitats in which the urban typologies play a major role in providing the physical backgrounds for a civilized city and town. The difference of sustainable cities of the future is the way they will have to address and adapt to the challenge of climate change and energy conservation. This can be achieved of course by the creation of the newer energy efficient breed of buildings and materials, but more importantly transplanting new energy systems into the existing building stock which by far forms the majority of dwellings in a city. Visionary town planning regulations will also be a fundamental driver, setting key principles for 21st Century post carbon urbanized societies. Societies that people want to be a part of, to live in, work in, learn in, play in and prosper in. There is no doubt that there is a clear interdependent relationship between the built environment, people, the economy and energy needs. We are on a journey. Finally, as William McDonough theorized: “Imagine what a world of prosperity and health in the future will look like, and begin designing for it right now.”

References

ROGERS, R. (1997) Cities for Small Planets. London Faber and Faber

SOLERI, P. (1969) Archology: The City in the Image of Man. Cambridge. MA. MIT Press

HAUGHTON, G. (1994) Sustainable Cities. London. Jessica Kingsley Regional studies association

EDWARDS, B. (2005) A Rough Guide to Sustainability. RIBA Enterprises

POWER, A. and ROGERS, R. Cities for a Small Country. (2000) London. Faber and Faber

Figure 1. A 21st Century City 2040? (National Geographic August 2005)

（文章来源：Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat Research Paper excerpts）